Trump, Trump-backed candidates surge in new Arizona polling

Polling shows a tight race in Arizona in the lead up to the November election, as Donald Trump endorsed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake faces off against Democrat rival Katie Hobbs and Trump backed Blake Masters goes up against incumbent Senator Mark Kelly.

A new poll out of Emerson College shows that Hobbs and her GOP rival, Kari Lake, are neck and neck and polling at 46 percent support each. Mark Kelly holds support at 47 percent with Blake Masters holding at 45 percent.

In the governor’s race only six percent are undecided and two percent claim they will vote for some other candidate. In the senate race, five percent say they are undecided and four percent claim they will vote for a third candidate.

Kari Lake, Blake Masters, and Mark Kelly all polled at 48 percent general favorability. 54 percent of voters expect Lake to win the governor’s seat and 53 percent expect Kelly to hold the Senate seat. 46 percent of those polled expect Hobbs to win, coincidentally Hobbs holds a 46 percent favorability rating.

31 percent have a very favorable view of Masters and 25 percent have a very favorable view of Kari Lake. Hobbs has a 27 percent very favorable margin and 35 percent are very favorable towards Kelly.

Kelly also holds the highest unfavorable rating at 49 percent. Those polled held Masters at 48 percent unfavorable, Lake at 47 percent, and 43 for Hobbs.

Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said, “A stark gender divide exists in the Arizona Senate Election; men break for Masters by a 10-point margin whereas women voters break for Kelly by 13. Additionally, Independent voters favor Kelly over Masters, 46 percent to 37 percent.”

Further polling showed that 53 percent of those polled disapprove of Biden. In a 2024 hypothetical race between Biden and Trump, polling broke for Trump at 44 percent with Biden at 41 percent.

In terms of issues, 36 percent said the economy was their biggest issue, the number two spot was tied between immigration and abortion, both polling at 16 percent. Healthcare was at 11 percent and crime at 7 percent.

Director Kimball said, “For those who say the economy is their determining issue this November, 63 percent support Masters and 66 percent support Lake. By contrast, 98 percent and 99 percent of those who say abortion access is the most important issue support Kelly and Hobbs.”

40 percent of voters said the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago makes them more likely to vote for Trump in 2024.

The poll was conducted September 6 – 7 and has a margin error of +/- 3.85 percentage points.

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